翻譯／姜唯；審校／林大利；稿源／ENS
世界銀行13日發表新版Groundswell報告警告，到2050年，氣候變遷將迫使全球2.16億人在國境內遷移，最早可能在2030年出現搬家潮，並且一直蔓延和加劇到2050年。
但報告也強調，立即採取協調一致的行動減少全球排放，支持綠色、包容性和有韌性的發展方式，可以將氣候遷移的規模減少多達80%。
到2050年 將有4900萬東亞和太平洋人因氣候而遷移
「這份報告清楚提醒人們氣候變遷對人類造成的損失，尤其是對世界上最貧窮的人，同時也是氣候變遷責任最輕的人。報告也提出一些各國解決氣候遷移的指引，」世界銀行永續發展副總裁沃格勒（Juergen Voegele）說，「這些問題根本上是相互關聯的，因此我們支持各國共同實現氣候和發展目標，同時建立更永續、安全和有韌性的未來。」
根據美國航太總署（NASA）1月份的報告，2020年是全球有記錄以來最熱的一年，和前一個破紀錄年份2016年平手。整體而言，自1880年代以來，地球的平均溫度已上升了1.2°C以上。
世界銀行的報告發現，氣候變遷是國境內遷移的一個強大驅動力，因為它會影響人們的生計和一個地區是否宜居。
到2050年，撒哈拉以南非洲可能會有多達8600萬人境內氣候移民，東亞和太平洋地區4900萬人，南亞4000萬人，北非1900萬人，拉丁美洲1700萬人，東歐和中亞500萬人。
根據聯合國大學環境與人類安全研究所（United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security）的說明，弱勢族群最有可能感受到因氣候變遷而遷移的壓力，但根據國際難民法，氣候移民在法律上不屬於難民。
報告找出缺水加劇、海平面上升等受災區以及可遷入區
世界銀行2018年的Groundswell報告使用了創新的建模方法，涵蓋撒哈拉以南非洲、南亞和拉丁美洲。本次報告以2018年版本為基礎，並納入另外三個地區的預測和分析：東亞和太平洋、北非以及東歐和中亞。
透過以情境為基礎的方法，該報告探討各種可能的後果，可以幫助決策者提前計畫。這種方法可以找出因缺水加劇、作物生產力下降和海平面上升，人們可能會遷出的地區，以及有更好條件建立新生計的城市和農村地區。
「以北非而言，模型顯示水資源可用性的變化是境內氣候遷移的主要因素。人們會離開水資源變得稀少的沿海和內陸地區，突尼斯東北海岸、阿爾及利亞海岸西北部、摩洛哥西部和南部，以及已經缺水的阿特拉斯中部山麓丘陵等氣候遷移熱點地區的人口增長狀況已減緩。」
「在埃及尼羅河三角洲東部和西部，包括亞歷山大港，可能會因為可用水量下降和海平面上升而成為外移熱點。同時，幾個水資源供應較好的地方可能成為氣候移入熱點，包括開羅、阿爾及爾、突尼斯、的黎波里、卡薩布蘭卡－拉巴特走廊和丹吉爾等重要城市中心。」
世界銀行表示，當人們被迫離開家園時，就失去了土地、工作、住宅和食物等生活基礎，變得更脆弱且不穩定。
針對氣候遷移 報告歸納四項建議
報告提供了一系列政策建議，幫助減緩推動氣候遷移的因素，並為預期的移民潮做好準備，包括：
一、減少全球排放並盡一切努力實現巴黎協定的溫度目標——將全球平均溫度的上升幅度控制在比工業化前水準低2°C以內，並盡可能控制在1.5°C內，以減少氣候變遷的影響。
二、將境內氣候移民納入有遠見的綠色、韌性和包容性的發展規劃中。
三、為移民的每個階段做好準備，以便將境內氣候移民作為一種適應戰略，可產生積極的發展成果。
四、投資於認識境內氣候遷移的驅動因素，以制定具有針對性的政策。
「自然智慧政策可創造雙贏。投資自然可以創造就業機會、瞄準最貧困的社區，和建立長期韌性，」世界銀行常務副行長馮慧蘭在世界銀行部落格上寫道，「健康的生態系統可減緩氣候變遷，並提高世界各地最脆弱社區的復原力。我們的估計顯示，積極的目標，像是到2030年保護30%的陸地和海洋（30×30 目標）是可以實現的，但要仰賴部門內和部門間的全球行動。」
「我們的集體責任，從私營企業到金融部門、政府決策者和民間社會，就是承諾果斷行動，保護、永續利用和公平分享生物多樣性來扭轉自然的流失。發展必須仰賴自然。」
World Bank: 216 Million In-Country Climate Migrants by 2050
WASHINGTON, DC, September 13, 2021 (ENS)
Climate change could force 216 million people across six world regions to move within their countries by 2050, finds a new report by the World Bank, released today. Hotspots of internal climate migration could emerge as early as 2030 and continue to spread and intensify by 2050.
Yet immediate and concerted action to reduce global emissions, and support green, inclusive, and resilient development, could reduce the scale of climate migration by as much as 80 percent, the report also finds.
“The Groundswell report is a stark reminder of the human toll of climate change, particularly on the world’s poorest – those who are contributing the least to its causes. It also clearly lays out a path for countries to address some of the key factors that are causing climate-driven migration,” said Juergen Voegele, Vice President of Sustainable Development, World Bank.
“All these issues are fundamentally connected which is why our support to countries is positioned to deliver on climate and development objectives together while building a more sustainable, safe and resilient future,” Voegele said.
Globally, 2020 was the hottest year on record, tying 2016, the previous record year, according to a NASA report in January. Overall, Earth’s average temperature has risen more than two degrees Fahrenheit since the 1880s. NASA says, “Temperatures are increasing due to human activities, specifically emissions of greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide and methane.”
Earth’s average temperature has risen more than 1.2 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the late 19th century.
The World Bank report found climate change to be a powerful driver of internal migration because of its impacts on people’s livelihoods and loss of livability in highly exposed locations.
By 2050, Sub-Saharan Africa could see as many as 86 million internal climate migrants; East Asia and the Pacific, 49 million; South Asia, 40 million; North Africa, 19 million; Latin America, 17 million; and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, five million.
The vulnerable are most likely to feel pressure to migrate, yet climate migrants are not legally considered refugees according to international refugee law, according to the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security Fact Sheet on people forced from their homes by climate change.
The updated Groundswell report builds on the pioneering modeling approach of the previous World Bank Groundswell report from 2018, which covered Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America.
The new report includes projections and analysis for three additional regions: East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
By using a scenario-based approach, the report explores potential future outcomes, which can help decision-makers plan ahead.
This approach allows for the identification of areas from which people are expected to move due to increasing water scarcity, declining crop productivity, and sea-level rise, and urban and rural areas with better conditions to build new livelihoods.
“In North Africa,” for instance, “the model results show changes in water availability as a main driver of internal climate migration. They push people out of coastal and inland areas where water is becoming scarcer, slowing population growth in climate out-migration hotspots along the northeastern coast of Tunisia, the northwestern coast of Algeria, western and southern Morocco, and the already water-stressed central Atlas foothills,” according to the new Groundswell report.
“In Egypt, the eastern and western portions of the Nile Delta, including Alexandria, could become out-migration hotspots due to both declining water availability and sea-level rise. Several places with better water availability, meanwhile, are projected to become climate in-migration hotspots, including important urban centers such as Cairo, Algiers, Tunis, Tripoli, the Casablanca-Rabat corridor, and Tangiers,” the report calculates.
When people are forced to move away from their homes, they lose their land, jobs, homes and access to food, setting the stage for more fragility and instability, the bank acknowledges.
This Groundswell report provides a series of policy recommendations that can help slow the factors driving climate migration and prepare for expected migration flows, including:
– Reducing global emissions and making every effort to meet the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement – to keep the rise in mean global temperature to less than 2 °C (3.6 °F) above pre-industrial levels, and, if possible, limit the increase to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), to reduce the impacts of climate change.
– Embedding internal climate migration in far-sighted green, resilient, and inclusive development planning.
– Preparing for each phase of migration, so that internal climate migration as an adaptation strategy can result in positive development outcomes.
– Investing in better understanding of the drivers of internal climate migration to inform well-targeted policies.
“Nature-smart policies are a win-win. Investing in nature can contribute to recovery efforts by creating jobs, targeting the poorest communities, and building long-term resilience,” writes Mari Elka Pangestu on the World Bank blog today.
“Healthy ecosystems support climate change mitigation and increase the resilience of the most vulnerable communities around the world. Our estimates suggest that ambitious targets, such as protecting 30% of land and oceans by 2030 (the ‘30×30’ goal), are within reach, but rely on global action across and within sectors,” Pangestu writes.
“It is our collective responsibility – from private companies, to the financial sector, to government policymakers, to civil society – to commit to decisive action to reverse nature loss through conservation, sustainable use, and equitable sharing of the benefits of biodiversity,” she writes. “We need nature to develop.”
※ 全文及圖片詳見：ENS
