2050 淨零排碳建模與路徑規劃之研究

中研院永續科學研究計畫（2021-2023）

The 2050 Net Zero Carbon Emission Modeling and Path Planning

Academia Sinica, Sustainability Science Research Program (2021-2023)

計畫主持人 Director

徐昕煒 Hsin-Wei Hsu

中原大學工業與系統工程學系 助理教授

Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University

計畫團隊 Project Group

仁飄零 Emmanuel Binyet

計畫博士後研究員

Postdoctoral Fellow

楊筑荃 Zhu-Quan Yang

計畫助理

Project Assistant

研究概述 

子題二旨在透過一個公眾可接受的量化平台與淨零排碳建模，以建構多元且合理的路徑規劃成為轉型的關鍵要素。為建構公眾可接受的數據資料庫與可行的情境設計，子題二預計在「台灣2050 能源供需模擬器」的基礎上做強化，重新考量包含碳稅、循環經濟方案及四大產業(水泥、鋼鐵、塑膠和運輸)的零排碳作為，建立「台灣2050 淨零排碳模擬器」。然而，淨零排碳路徑不單單是公眾與政府間的共識，仍須納入產業思維，故本研究透過賽局理論建模，將政府政策與上述四大產業做連結，以求得淨零排碳目標下產業最適當的行為建議。最後，本研究亦將透過各路徑的不確定性定義與調查，建立路徑可靠性分析，提供大眾每條路徑預計達成的可行性，以完善2050淨零排碳路徑規劃思維與凝聚共識。

Research Summary

Due to the urgency of global warming, the transition to a zero-carbon society has become an important issue. However, the transition is facing many challenges, and the consensus from different stakeholders becomes the critical factor. Therefore, through a publicly acceptable quantitative platform and net zero carbon reduction modeling, the reasonable pathway planning will be the solution for consensus. In order to build a publicly acceptable data database and feasible scenario, this research is expected to be strengthened on the basis of the "Taiwan 2050 Calculator". After reconsidering the contribution of carbon tax, circular economy plans and four major industries (cement, steel, plastics and transportation), the "Taiwan 2050 net zero-carbon emission Calculator" will be done. The calculator is expected to provide favorable parameters for net zero carbon emission and can be used for optimization model. However, the pathway of net zero carbon emission is not only a consensus between the public and the government, but also needs to be incorporated into industrial thinking. Therefore, in this study, through the game theory, the government policy is connected to the above four major industries to obtain the most appropriate actions under the net zero carbon emission target. Finally, in order to assist the government and the public to communicate with a favorable reference, we will also establish a path reliability analysis through defining and investigating the uncertainty.

總計畫：永續社會的轉型治理：臺灣2050 零碳社會的轉型治理分析與實踐
Collective Project: Governance Transition toward a Sustainable Society: An Analysis of the Contextual Challenges of Governance Transition toward Net Zero Carbon Emission by 2050 in Taiwan

子題一：2050 台灣淨零排碳社會：政策工具與治理
Subproject 1: Net Zero Carbon Emission Society in Taiwan: Policy Mixes and Governance

子題三：石化產業和塑膠世
Subproject 3: The Petrochemical Industry and the Plasticene